Monday, January 25, 2010

GDP Growth Forecasted

The UK is predicted to show a small .3% growth in GDP, therefore signalling the end of recession. There hasn´t been any growth since 2008 and so far there has been a 6% contraction in the overall economy since its highest point. Experts warn that the recovery will be fragile, this is understandable considering the depth of the problems we had.

The housing market is also showing some signs of stabilizing with prices ending up slightly higher at the end of ´09 than at the start of the year. Again, tentative signs that should not be construed as a full speed ahead recovery.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Inflation Fallen Less Than Expected

........... but we still need to fight the threat of deflation.
The consumer prices index (CPI) fell from 3.1% to 3% in December. That was higher than expected as economists had expected a rise of 2.7% according to a Bloomberg survey.
The Retail Prices Index (RPI) – which includes housing costs – tells a similar story. It rose 0.1% in January whereas some commentators had expected a fall.

Source : Fool

Sunday, February 15, 2009

US Stimulous Plan Approved

Great news for the worldwide economy.

I think its fair to say that the US is really pushing to get the economy back on its feet.

The Guardian published an article stating that The Duke of Westminster has had to visit bankers to discuss his banking covenants.

He also refuted the claim that banks could seize assets.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

€10 Billion Loss "Seemed Like a Good Idea at The Time"

The above shocking comments were from Sir Fred Goodwin (Ex-Numero uno at RBS) and he was referring to the misguided purchase of ABN Amro, whose toxic debts made it virtually worthless.

America will be the place to watch today, as the latest TARP announcement is being made, watch for a strong market reaction, particularly in the banking sector - which way will it go?

Friday, February 6, 2009

The RBS Bonus Situation Escalates

Peter Mandelson The Business Secretary intervened regarding the issuing of bonuses for RBS executives in a couple of weeks time.

As my previous post says the general public will be nothing less than outraged if said bonuses are awarded to traders, whose risky portfolios contributed to the bank now being 68% owned by the state.

Sir Philip Hampton ex-Sainsburys boss, has a tough job ahead of him. 7 executives have retired making way for the his new team.

Its amazing that greed and the use of ill understood derivatives could lead to such a mess and even more astounding that this high risk strategy went unchecked.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

House Prices Rise in the UK

One of the leading lenders in the UK, The Halifax actually recorded a 1.9% gain in house prices over the month of Jan. This piece of news was totally unexpected.

It would be easy to get carried away and attribute it to the road of recovery, however there are so many other issues currently, that such assumptions would be naive.

Unemployment is rising rapidly, liquidity is still poor and consumer confidence is at rock bottom. That said, Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis optimistically views this statistic as a sign of stabilization.

Lets hope he´s right

UK Tax Payers Pay RBS trading arm GBM £100´s Millions in Bonuses

After The Royal Bank of Scotland has been bailed out by the taxpayer, they are planning to pay out £100´s Millions to high flyer's. The justification for this is that if they don´t reward the talent they will defect.

I am sure the average UK citizen will feel little compassion for poorly reward traders.

UK Financial Investments (UKFI), the Treasury operated body holding the Government´s stake in RBS have allowed the payments. They do understand how incendiary this will be to the UK taxpayer.

Ministers vetoed bonuses to members of the board as a condition of the rescue, but anyone below board level in unaffected.

I wonder how transparent these payments will be when they are made?

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The Man Who Moves Markets

Robert Peston the BBC business editor has been grilled today by MP´s on the Treasury Select Committee, over his involvement with the banking crisis.

Cast your mind back to his reporting on Northern Rock ( breaking the news that they were seeking emergency funding) and the possibility of privileged information appearing on his blog regarding HBOS takeover talks with Lloyds, causing mass share buying. Both of these assumptions, by the way turned out to be correct.

Peston defends himself, saying it is due to good journalism rather than insider information.

The recession/credit crunch has proven to be the best thing that could happen to Mr. Pestons career, this is indeed his finest hour and it is plain for all to see he is enjoying the attention.

I would suggest that he is either incredibly lucky or he has the journalistic skills Peter Parker gained when he was bitten by a mutant arachnid and developed spider sense.

Article in The Telegraph on House Price Negotiation

How much do I offer : Source The Telegraph

A friend house-hunting in villages near my home in north Norfolk found a stylish converted coach house that took her fancy. It was on the market at £550,000. Balancing the factors involved – a sought-after village and unusual house against the muddle of discounts, sliding prices and gloomy predictions – she had one question. “How on earth do we know what to offer?”

In the event she tentatively agreed £465,000 but then, as happens in life, another buyer appeared from nowhere and snapped it up for “tens of thousands more”. It serves as a reminder that, even in these dark days, purchases are still being made, people have money to spend and a good location will be as seductive as ever.

But how much to offer is the question that is taxing buyers all over the country, and the answer is complex. We all know this is a buyer’s market. The fact that the number of transactions so far this year is down by 49 per cent means that purchasers have the cards in their hands. But they need to have their funding sorted.

As James Hyman of Cluttons says, shaving the interest rate to 1.5 per cent doesn’t melt the banks’ hard-hearted unwillingness to lend, especially as “few borrowers have spotless credit ratings and total job security, and are able to afford 25 per cent to 30 per cent deposits”. As a cash buyer, therefore, you can afford to swagger a little.

Mark and Georgina Robinson, with their six-month-old baby Sally, are renting a flat in Wimbledon while they hunt for a three- to four-bedroom house in West Sussex. They owned a flat before, but sold in 2006 to go travelling. “When I bought in 2002 it was quite different,” says Mark.
“Estate agents were flash, blasé, driving convertibles, on their mobiles all the time, not interested in the buyers at all because they knew the properties would sell themselves.”

Now, he says, they ring up and suggest that sellers will accept lower offers. “Once you have been looking for a few months you get a real sense of prices dropping,” he says. “Stuff we looked at in November at £300,000 is now £275,000. So there is no hurry. We are told they will accept £250,000. There is a seller who wants to go to Australia. Others are frantic because they have split up. Some don’t seem to be in such a rush but they are still on the market, so their underlying reason to sell is still there.”

Mark and Georgina are fortunate – they have a mortgage offer and large deposit ready. As Mark worked previously as an accountant and now has his own specialist running shop, Lanson Running (fortunately, people run just as much in a recession as they do in a boom), he has financial acumen. So what is his answer to the question of what to offer? “We are prepared to put in low offers and work upwards by small increments until we wear the sellers down. We can’t afford to think too much about what sellers are going through. They have probably still made a profit anyway, and I have to put my family first.”

But should people study the market and work out a more scientific approach? Knight Frank agency, for instance, says that prime property in London shed almost 10 per cent of its value in the past three months of 2008, so buyers can calculate an appropriate discount. At the £1m to £2.25m level, prices have shed 22 per cent since their peak, and anything over £10m has fallen by 8 per cent since August last year. So different categories of property have been moving at different speeds.

Much also depends on the psychology of the seller. “The gap between vendor’s expectations and buyer’s expectations shows in the comparison between asking prices and sale prices,” says Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills. “In January 2008, actual prices paid were 3.5 per cent higher than asking prices. In November and December they were 8.2 per cent lower, even though asking prices were cut by 5.5 per cent.”

Two new horrors, which sellers now fear more than anything, have appeared. There is the “double discount”, where a price has already been substantially reduced and an even lower offer is made. And the “gazunder”, in which buyers demand a second discount just on the point of exchange of contracts, when sellers are at their most vulnerable. According to Savills this is happening with roughly one in six sales.

But no one is more experienced on where to pitch an offer than the smooth-tongued buying agent. “We ignore completely the guide price on any property, whether it has been price-reduced or comes fresh to the market,” says Philip Selway of The Buying Solution. “We go back to autumn 2007, which was the recognised peak, and establish what the property was worth at that moment. Then we come down 20 per cent because that is how much the market has dropped.”

But do they take account of possible further falls? “We think there will probably be another 10 per cent dip. So the advice to our clients is that it is best to offer another 5 per cent lower and put yourself within 5 per cent of the bottom. They won’t ever be able to find the bottom of the market unless they are dead lucky. So the important thing is to buy on the line going down, not when it comes back up. That’s when vendors start to change their attitude and it gets competitive.”

Oddly, he and other search agents say they are busy at the moment because people want certainty from expert advice and access to research data. “Those people whose jobs are secure have only benefited from interest rate cuts and have more disposable income than they had before,” he says. “They are also able to enjoy lower prices. So, contrary to some reports, we aren’t all going to hell in a handcart.”

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Art of Negotiation

Have you noticed that everyone thinks they are a master of negotiation. In reality most of us are not, however when negotiating there are some principles that can help.

The main reason either party comes out on top of a negotiation is that they exploit the others weakness, sounds like Gordon Gekko talking, I know, but that is the plain truth.

The main way of discovering weakness in who you are negotiating with is research ie. having a full understanding their circumstances and position.

Using a property purchase as an example - log on to http://www.upmystreet.com/ and check out the last transaction for a house near the one you want. How long has it been on the market? Why is the vendor is moving? What do they do for a living? Are they in a chain and what is their timescale for moving if they are. Not going into a negotiation with adequate research is a surefire way of coming out bottom!

If you really dig and dig, a crack in their armour usually appears, hopefully not as big as the one they have exposed in yours.

The most important thing of all is integrity, if you make a deal stick to it. I am a firm believer that you treat people the way you would like to be treated yourself. Have that philosophy and you can´t go far wrong!

Improve the Value of Your Home

Here is a great article from The Times giving some great tips about adding value to your home.

1 INSTALL AN ENSUITE BATHROOM

If you have three or more bedrooms, people these days expect more than one bathroom. The best option is to squeeze an ensuite bathroom into the master bedroom, leaving the original as the “family” bathroom. This could mean shaving a bit off your bedroom with a stud wall or, if you’re lucky, pinching a bit of the landing.

Bathroom companies have clever designs for tight spaces. Look for “quadrant” showers, shaped like a quarter-circle to fit in corners; you can also get corner loos and sinks. If you must have both a bath and shower, go for a combination bath with a curved screen at one end to give you more showering space.

Cost: From £2,000, depending on how involved you get.

Can you do it yourself? A competent DIYer could do the flooring, tiling and painting to keep costs down. Plumbing, and probably electrics, are best left to the experts.

Money back? Yes – unless you go crazy. The National Association of Estate Agents says that a second bathroom or ensuite can add up to 5% to the value of your home.

2 CONVERT THE LOFT

This is one of the most cost-effective ways to add space – especially if you turn it into an extra bedroom and bathroom. Bear in mind that you need to have at least 2.3 metres of headroom, and think about where you will put all the stuff you’ve been storing up there.

It’s probably better to use a specialist loft conversion company than a general builder, as whatever problems you have, they will have solved them before. Julie Eveleigh used Outlook Loft Conversions (www.outlooklofts.co.uk) to add a bedroom and a bathroom to her Edwardian house in Wandsworth, southwest London. “In our area, it’s a huge leap to move up to the next level, the five-bedroom houses, even if it were possible to move in the current market,” she says. “Instead, we’ve bridged the gap and made ours into a five-bedder with the loft conversion. The builders were great. They said it would take five weeks to get it done and it took exactly that.”

Cost: The most basic conversion starts at £7,000, but the price will run well into five figures if you need to put in a mansard or a dormer – though it is still much cheaper than digging out a basement. Try www.loftquoter.co.uk for quotes, but be sure to shop around.

Can you do it yourself? Not the structural work, but you can keep costs down by decorating yourself.

Money back? Yes, particularly if you use it to add a bedroom. Depending on the area, this could add between £20,000 and £50,000 to the property’s value.

3 EXTEND THE KITCHEN

Open-plan kitchen/diner/family rooms remain in vogue – and the bigger the better. Building an extension should be easier thanks to changes in the rules, introduced last October, allowing you to extend terraces and semis by three metres and detached properties by four metres without planning permission (www.planningportal.gov.uk).

Chris and Jan Wright, who bought a fairly standard four-bedroom new-build detached house 10 years ago in Heswall, Wirral, knocked the kitchen and dining room together and extended to create three areas. “We’ve got the kitchen area with an island, a dining table that seats eight and two three-seater sofas at the other end,” says Chris, a financial services consultant.

The Wrights, who used Architect Your Home to plan the extension (www.architect-yourhome.com), use the new space to entertain in, too. “Our guests can get comfortable on the sofas with a drink and talk to us while we get the meal ready,” Chris says.

Cost: About £15,000 for a small extension, plus the cost of kitchen units and appliances, if needed.

Can you do it yourself? Probably not, unless you are a builder. If you touch a supporting wall, you will be closely supervised by the local building-control service and will probably need a structural engineer, too.

Money back? Probably: kitchen/dining spaces are in demand, especially if you have a small kitchen. Get advice from local estate agents.

4 CONVERT THE GARAGE

Does the car really need a room of its own? Turning a garage into a playroom, study, extra bedroom or games room is one of the easiest and least expensive ways to extend – as long as you still have somewhere to park. If you have a double garage, convert half of it. The structure is already there, so all you need is heating, insulation, a window, plastering and decorating.

Cost: As little as £5,000, all in.

Can you do it yourself? Possibly, but you will need electrician’s skills and will have to meet building regulations.

Money back? Yes: the extra space can add 10% to the value of your home.

5 PUT IN A SKYLIGHT

There is plenty you can do to your home on a smaller budget. With prices starting at less than £100, skylights can transform loft and attic rooms, corridors and stairwells, flooding the house with light. You’ll need blinds if the skylight is in a bedroom. If you’re a light sleeper, be warned that raindrops can make a racket in the middle of the night. Competent DIYers could fit one themselves, but if that’s not you, get the store to recommend someone, ask a glazier or pay a specialist company to do it.

Cost: B&Q has a 45cm x 55cm skylight for £80 (www.diy.com), but you’ll pay much more for Velux and other brands. Having a skylight installed costs about £600 with a specialist such as www.simplyroofwindows.co.uk.

Can you do it yourself? Yes – if your DIY skills are up to it.

Money back? The price is so small relative to the cost of a home that it should be a winner. The property will also be more attractive to prospective buyers.

6 ADD A UTILITY ROOM

Reclaim your kitchen by getting rid of laundry clutter and cleaning kit. Like ensuite bathrooms, utility rooms are becoming de rigueur – especially as the kitchen turns into a living and entertaining space. The good news is, creating one is cheap.

The ideal time to create a utility room is when you’re extending the kitchen. Otherwise, section off a corner with a stud wall or commandeer the back of a garage. Utility rooms in cellars are another option. Jude Tugman, an architect based in London, has also fitted them under stairs: “Even if the space only allows for one appliance and somewhere for the mop and vacuum cleaner, it’s worth it.”

Cost: Minimal if you are sectioning off the back of the garage or fitting a washing machine under the stairs.

Can you do it yourself? Yes, with advice from DIY websites.

Money back? Difficult to say, but it should make the house more saleable.

7 FIRST APPEARANCES

Giving the door and woodwork a fresh coat of paint will make a big difference and won’t cost much. It will make you feel better about your home and, when you come to sell, should impress potential buyers. Choose blues, greens or a smart black, but avoid pinks, oranges and purples, as they’re too personal a choice. And don’t neglect window boxes or pots near the door in winter – there’s always something with bright berries or glossy leaves to be found at the garden centre.

Cost: You can keep it to a minimum by painting the door and windowsills and planting up a couple of pots.

Can you do it yourself? Yes.

Money back? In a weak market, a smart front can be the difference between a potential buyer walking past and coming in for a viewing.

8 TREAD THE BOARDS

Ripping up that tired fitted carpet to reveal the boards beneath is the easiest and most cost-effective way to update. “Renovating floorboards, like opening up fireplaces, increases the saleability of your home,” Clarke says.

You can hire a sander and do it yourself, but it’s noisy, dusty work and might be worth leaving to a pro. Staining or varnishing is a nicer job. Test a small patch first to see the effect – the more coats you use, the darker it will become. Now for the fun part: go and buy some new rugs to complete the transformation.

Cost: Hiring a sander, buying varnish and doing the whole job could come to about £150. Getting someone in will cost about £400, depending on the number of rooms.

Can you do it yourself? Yes – if you can stand the dust.

Money back? Easily.

9 LANDSCAPE THE GARDEN

A patch of lawn with a tree at the end is old hat: anyone who’s ever watched a garden makeover programme wants an outdoor space that will seem like an extension of their living room – which means glass sliding doors or french windows leading to paving or decking with nice furniture. Now is the time to plan, so you can plant in early spring.

Cost: It can easily run to thousands. Plants are pricey and so are designers; save money by hiring a student on a garden design course.

Can you do it yourself? Yes, with the help of green-fingered friends and by watching TV garden makeover shows.

Money back? Yes, provided you keep costs under control. It will certainly provide enjoyment in the meantime.

10 OPEN UP THE FIREPLACE

A working fireplace adds focus to a room, and most period houses have one – although, if it hasn’t been used for some time, the hearth may no longer comply with building regulations. This must be made of a noncombustible material such as stone, tiles or brick, be 48mm thick and project forward at least 30cm.

The Solid Fuel Association (www.solidfuel.co.uk) offers a step-by-step guide to get a fire working. You’ll need the chimney swept and checked for cracks; make sure you cover all your furniture and carpets, as soot can make a real mess of a cream sofa.

Cost: Minimal if you don’t need a new grate or hearth. It can cost as little as £25 to have a chimney swept.

Can you do it yourself? Yes, with the exception of the sweeping. Don’t be tempted to use the kids.

Money back? Who cares? You haven’t spent much, and it’ll make winters something to look forward to.

Lay Off The Non Americans First

Microsoft, the software giant, is laying off more than 5000 jobs worldwide, in an effort to cut costs and preserve profitabilty.

Senator Charles Grassley sent a letter to Steve Balmer, current CEO of Microsoft saying that they have a "moral obligation to protect American workers first".

This is an exaple of "protectionism" the definition of which I posted a couple of days ago on this blog.

Monday, February 2, 2009

BoE Rate Cut When Not IF

Seems the general consensus of opinion is that 1% interest rates are on the cards after the Monetary Policy Committee meet later this week.

Building societies are getting increasingly worried and are pleading against further rate cuts.

I predict within 6 months we will have 0% interest rates.

If only the BoE had acted a little quicker 18 months ago, instead of focusing excessively on inflation, still hindsight is a perfect science. I think it would be naive of anyone to think this crisis could have been averted.

Just a softer landing, maybe.

Obama Talks Sense to Bailout Banks

Obama seems to be making some decisive and sensible decisions regarding the TARPS program. He will ensure banks actually start giving credit again,as part of the bailout criteria.

He quite rightly believes that further procrastion will damage the ecomomy further, saying "modest differences of opinion should not slow the process".

Sunday, February 1, 2009

New Completed Project in Siderno Calabria

A new week that is hopefully as productive for us as last week.
I should be getting details of a completed project in Siderno, Calabria this week. Siderno is a great little town, totally unspoiled with some of the best value restaurants I have ever seen.
I will post information on here as and when.

On a different note The Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Zapatero called a meeting with with leading bankers to urge them to lend. Lets see how that request is received.
It astounds me money was pumped into these banks without a criteria being attached. Looks like nationalization will be the only option for some of them.

Adios.

The End of a Very Busy Week for First Property Choice

What a week it has been, there is a marked increase in enquiries this week, signalling the end of the quiet period just after the New Year.

I think many people have come to terms with the fact that there is a recession and want to move forward with their plans, albeit more cautiously.

I have been looking into some great new projects in Sicily and Sardinia that offer great value in stunning locations, I will keep you posted about them on this blog.

Lenders Trying Not to Pass on Further Rate Cuts

Surprise, surprise The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) have gone to the government to try and put a "collar" on existing tracker mortgages. They complain if they don´t that it would hurt their ability to get savings deposits.

Is it just me or do banks want everything their own way.

They got themselves into this situation, through ridiculous lending criteria, surely they should face the consequences.

Saturday, January 31, 2009

New Blog on Istanbul


Get insider information on this exciting property market, save literally €1000´s by being fully informed on property in Istanbul.

Click here for the definative guide on Istanbul.

What is Protectionism and Why does Gordon Brown Fear it?

" protectionism" - The practice of protecting domestic goods and service industries from foreign competition with tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Gordon Brown has started trying to rally the population, but mentioned protection may be an issue.

Protectionism causes higher prices for consumers because domestic producers are not exposed to foreign competition, and can therefore keep prices high. There is also the possibilty domestic exporters may also may suffer, because foreign countries tend to retaliate against protectionism with tariffs and barriers of their own.

Many economists say that the Depression of the 1930s was precipitated by the protectionist trade barriers erected by the United States.

This is why the summit taking place in April hosted by Gordon Brown will be instrumental to moving the G8 economies forward.

Before the summit Mr. Brown calls for positivity from the British public, indeed many of the predictions of doom and gloom from analysts become self fulfilling.

Improved consumer sentiment is a piece in the jigsaw of economic recovery.

New Blog Specifically for Calabria

I have just launched a blog with some of our exclusive developments in Calabria. The blog aims to give useful information on buying or owning a property in Calabria.

Discover some of the most exciting new properties coming to the market this year, so check it out.

Follow this link http://propertyincalabria.blogspot.com